USA Today: “Technically, the Supreme Court’s decision doesn’t dictate how those lower court cases should come out. But it also sends a signal that’s hard for lower court judges to ignore.”
“No federal appeals court has yet upheld a state law prohibiting same-sex unions. But judges on a Sixth Circuit panel hearing a challenge to four state laws earlier this year expressed skepticism that the Constitution requires states to recognize those marriages. And two of the lawsuits are now in front of the conservative judges of the Fifth Circuit. If either one of those courts upholds a state ban, the justices might be faced with a marriage case that would be harder to sidestep.”
Philip Bump looks at what happened with interracial marriage bans as an indicator of what could happen.
The Supreme Court’s decision “raises the question of how long until every state in the country will allow same-sex couples to marry, or whether some states never will without a Supreme Court ruling legalizing marriages nationally.”
“A century ago, marriage between blacks and whites was still illegal in more than half of the states. With the Supreme Court’s 1967 decision Loving v. Virginia, the 17 states that still had laws banning the practice found their laws invalidated.”
“Without Loving, it’s not clear if those states might have acted sooner. After all, there was only symbolic pressure on them to take action. But it is clear that they likely wouldn’t have acted in 1967. Without a similar Supreme Court decision on same-sex marriage, it’s not clear when or how the states … might change, either.”