The Critical Question for the Election: It’s About Obamacare

David Frum: “’Will you take away my health insurance?’”

“That question does not get asked often at Republican presidential forums. Yet it will be the most decisive question in the 2016 presidential election.”

“Obamacare skeptics may disparage [its] benefits as inefficient, counter-productive, and excessively costly. Fine. Those who receive them won’t cherish them any less. The mortgage interest deduction is not exactly a model of economic rationality. Try taking it away. Go ahead. Try.”

“Unless the Supreme Court strikes down subsidies in the federal exchange in the pending case of King v. Burwell, ACA insurance subsidies are paid everywhere in the country … Eligibility for subsidy is concentrated in the red states … Some Republican-leaning voters will feel the hit—and especially in a tightly balanced state like Florida, that hit could have real consequences.”

“For those economically stressed toss-up voters—for the younger voters who sometimes show up and sometimes vote—the tipping point issue won’t be foreign policy. It won’t be ethics. It won’t be healthcare. It won’t even be the overall performance of the economy, which will be better, but still unwonderful. It will be that single haunting question, ‘Will I lose my insurance?’”

“If they don’t hear a clear and convincing ‘No,’ they’re going to assume the answer is ‘Yes’—and most likely, vote accordingly.”

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