Does the SCOTUS Redistricting Verdict Really Help Democrats?

Nate Cohn: “When the Supreme Court ruled Monday to allow independent redistricting commissions in Arizona, the decision was greeted with enthusiasm from liberals who support redistricting reform.”

“But if the court had ruled the other way, it … might have even helped put Democrats in position to gain additional seats.”

“Most of the districts drawn by independent commissions are in Democratic-leaning states, where Democrats would be likelier than Republicans to take control of the redistricting process … For the Supreme Court’s decision to ultimately help Democrats, redistricting commissions will need to spread to states where Republicans currently control the redistricting process. Independent commissions in states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virginia and North Carolina would almost certainly yield additional seats for Democrats.”

“But so far, there have been no major moves toward establishing independent commissions in the states where Republicans control the redistricting process.”

“Absent explicit criteria to the contrary — like a requirement to create partisan balance — independent commissions could easily adopt relatively favorable maps for incumbents in the very states where Democrats are hoping to unseat incumbent Republicans.”

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