Are We on the Brink of Another Recession?

Washington Post: “Confronted with disappointing data from around the world, economists are whispering a word that hasn’t seemed like a real possibility in years: recession.”

“It starts with the slowdown in China, which is already straining the global recovery … A growing chorus of prominent economists and analysts are arguing those dynamics could tip the world — and the United States along with it — into recession within the next two years. The fear is showing up in the recent wild swings in financial markets, rare outside of broader economic downturns. The pace of U.S. job growth has slowed substantially compared to last year. And though the economic expansion has never quite reached many workers, it has actually lasted longer than the post-war average.”

“Perhaps most importantly, wage growth has remained stuck at about 2 percent despite a drop in the unemployment rate and a pickup in hiring.”

“Most analysts still believe the most likely scenario is that the country continues to chug along: Congress reaches an eleventh-hour compromise, the nation’s central bank maintains its balancing act, and the U.S. recovery is weighed down but not derailed by international turmoil. Currently, estimates of economic growth are around a sluggish 1 percent annual rate, and though expectations for next year have been repeatedly lowered, they are still positive.”

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