Uninsured Rate of 11.9% at End of 2015

Gallup: “In the fourth quarter of 2015, 11.9% of U.S. adults were without health insurance, up slightly from 11.6% in the third quarter and back to where it was in the first quarter of 2015. Still, the uninsured rate declined 5.2 percentage points since the fourth quarter of 2013, right before the key provision of the health law requiring Americans to carry health insurance took effect in early 2014.”

UninsuredAmericans_v4-01

“”The sharp drop in the uninsured rate seen in the first year after the insurance exchanges opened has leveled off in the second year, with smaller declines seen in 2015 compared with 2014. This validates concerns that similarly large reductions may not be possible in the future because the remaining uninsured are harder to reach or less inclined to become insured more generally. Future reductions will likely require significant outreach and expanded programs targeting those who have not yet taken advantage of the health insurance marketplace.”

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  • pisher

    The other article posted here today about Obamacare strongly suggests that we could make a lot more progress in reducing the uninsured rate if so many states weren’t actively resisting the implementation of Obamacare. We can hardly say that individuals are just resistant to trying it if they’re not even given the chance. Yes, anybody can sign up on the national exchange, but it’s harder if your state isn’t participating, and of course the Medicaid expansion hasn’t been adopted in a number of states yet.

    More outreach is good, but what really needs to be addressed is the intransigence of a party that refuses to admit that all Americans need health insurance, and many will never have it without the government doing something to facilitate that happening.

    • markbuehner

      What really needs to be addressed is the enormous liability states will incur once the Feds stop picking up the whole bill. Medicaid expansion has exploded beyond projections, accounting for nearly the entire coverage improvement against the pre-recession baseline.

      • you mean when the state share goes from 0% to 10%?

        oh noes. the sky is falling!

        • markbuehner

          Thats an estimated (it will come in higher, as always) additional 70 billion dollars the states dont have.

          • what a disaster!

          • Please cite a source showing that is merely an estimate. Every source I have ever read gives these as exact percentages.

            states may or may not “have” needed money in the future. you are making much of a very weak case.

          • markbuehner

            The percentage is exact, but the dollar amount depends on the total cost, right?
            http://www.forbes.com/sites/sallypipes/2015/07/27/heres-why-states-must-resist-the-temptation-to-expand-medicaid/

            “Enrollment is also far above what most states had planned. That’s putting pressure on state budgets.

            Consider Kentucky. Some 311,000 people enrolled last year — double expectations.
            The Bluegrass State didn’t think that many would sign up through 2021.
            As a result, it has doubled its Medicaid cost estimate for 2017.

            Other states’ experiences have been similar. Michigan’s Medicaid costs have climbed 50 percent. Ohio’s have more than doubled. Illinois now figures its Medicaid expansion will add $2 billion to its costs from 2017 to 2020 — almost four times its original predictions.”

          • ok, so we agree on the percentages. good.

            and of course you are fully considering the costs to a state of having a uninsured population in poor health.

          • markbuehner

            Yes, but i suspect what we wont agree on is that medicaid hasnt been proven to either save states money nor *provide better health outcomes than being uninsured entirely*.
            http://www.khi.org/news/article/study-benefits-medicaid-managed-care-unproven/

          • as is your wont

  • markbuehner

    Isnt that number supposed to be going down?

    • it’s way down, even if you wish away the recession.

      • markbuehner

        Looks to me like its trending up. Regardless, yes it down, but down by almost exclusively the amount of free Medicaid policies given out. Could have expanded medicaid with a 1 page bill.

        • if there had been no recession, you mean

          or stop waving your hands, and do some actual math

          • markbuehner

            Are you suggesting the uninsured rate would never have dropped back to pre-recession levels? What do you base that on? Theres no hand waving- why wouldnt you look at the uninsured rate from before the largest recession in modern history as opposed to at the height of it? Thats straight up cherry picking.
            What math do you want? According to Gallup the uninsured rate was 14.4% before the market crashed. Its now 11.9%, a 2.5% drop. Lets be kind and give you the entire 350 million population of the country (we shouldnt because Medicare pays for the elderly already, so this is best case for you), that 350,000,000 * .025 = 8,750,000 more people insured that you would expect from the pre-recession average.

            Meanwhile: “More than 12 million people
            have signed up for Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act since January
            2014.”

            http://www.politico.com/story/2015/05/skyrocketing-medicaid-expansion-obamacare-republican-governors-

          • i see the crux of your magical thinking now.

            you believe when recession end automatically all the damage done is restored, and that the Great Recession was itself just a normal business cycle.

            and you think it’s cherry-picking to consider the fate of real live people with no insurance at the height of a financial calamity. Somehow the old healthcare system was going to welcome them back inevitably, via… magic, I suppose.

          • markbuehner

            So, again, you are suggesting the recession would have lasted forever with Obamacare? Thats us your contention?

          • of course not, silly.

            i am questioning your contention that the end of the recession was going to magically restore healthcare coverage to pre-recession levels, contain costs, fast-track automation of healthcare IT, etc.

            now, if you want you to make a case for medicaid expansion (single payer) that sounds fine, and it took Lieberman to scuttle opt-in Medicare expansion (also single-payer), but if you argument is the status quo ante was guaranteed to reconstitute itself, well then again I am unpersuaded.

          • markbuehner

            I think its up to you to prove the economy wouldn’t recover to pre-recession levels. Any data or links to back this up? Any reason to believe unemployment would have remained at 10% indefinitely, and Obamacare somehow remedied that? Or that employers would suddenly opt out of providing healthcare as the economy recovered (which didnt happen in fact)? You’re spinning an interesting tale here, one that i’ve never heard before. What we DO know is that a large portion of the gains in the insured rate did indeed come from employers, which OCare had no effect on (aside from making it more expensive and less flexible).

          • i name you, kid reductio ad absurdum

          • markbuehner

            I dub you, Sir Go Track Down Evidence For Me and I Will Rebut It With Feelings TraLaLa.

          • you’ve got your hobbyhorse – might as well call into some radio shows and spread your incredible shrinking theory

          • markbuehner

            I havent posted a theory. I’ve posted links. I know it hurts your little head to read them, but I dont know what else to tell you. The maths are in the links. You’re entitled to your own (insipid) opinion, but you dont get your own facts. If you have any that dispute what Forbes etc are providing I urge you to link to them. Or.. you know, go slink back into the fever swamps in epic shame.

          • bless your heart

          • markbuehner

            “A May, 2015 Rand Corporation study
            for a comparable period found about the same decline in the number of
            those uninsured but gave us the rest of the story. From the study
            summary:

            Insurance coverage has increased across all types of insurance since
            the major provisions of the federal Affordable Care Act took effect,
            with a net total of 16.9 million people becoming newly enrolled through
            February 2015, according to a new RAND Corporation study.
            Researchers estimate that from September 2013 to February 2015, 22.8
            million Americans became newly insured and 5.9 million lost coverage,
            for a net of 16.9 million newly insured Americans.

            Among those newly gaining coverage, 9.6 million people enrolled in
            employer-sponsored health plans, followed by Medicaid (6.5 million), the
            individual marketplaces (4.1 million), non marketplace individual plans
            (1.2 million) and other insurance sources (1.5 million).”

            http://www.forbes.com/sites/robertlaszewski2/2015/08/17/has-obamacare-really-reduced-the-uninsured-by-16-million-and-continued-to-show-strong-growth/#2715e4857a0b2d9d2f375cb4

          • give it up

          • markbuehner

            You ask for math, i give you math. And cites. You reply with nothing, because you have nothing to refute facts with. Sounds about right.

          • backs away slowly from the guy on the curb with that one theory that explains everything

          • backs away slowly from the guy on the curb with that one theory that explains everything

          • markbuehner

            “A May, 2015 Rand Corporation study
            for a comparable period found about the same decline in the number of
            those uninsured but gave us the rest of the story. From the study
            summary:

            Insurance coverage has increased across all types of insurance since
            the major provisions of the federal Affordable Care Act took effect,
            with a net total of 16.9 million people becoming newly enrolled through
            February 2015, according to a new RAND Corporation study.
            Researchers estimate that from September 2013 to February 2015, 22.8
            million Americans became newly insured and 5.9 million lost coverage,
            for a net of 16.9 million newly insured Americans.

            Among those newly gaining coverage, 9.6 million people enrolled in
            employer-sponsored health plans, followed by Medicaid (6.5 million), the
            individual marketplaces (4.1 million), non marketplace individual plans
            (1.2 million) and other insurance sources (1.5 million).”

            http://www.forbes.com/sites/robertlaszewski2/2015/08/17/has-obamacare-really-reduced-the-uninsured-by-16-million-and-continued-to-show-strong-growth/#2715e4857a0b2d9d2f375cb4

        • if there had been no recession, you mean

          or stop waving your hands, and do some actual math

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