Anti-Incumbent Mood is Strong

Gallup: Barely half of U.S. voters think their own member of Congress deserves re-election, and just 27% say most members deserve another turn. These findings are on par with voters’ attitudes in October 2014 and slightly improved from the historically weak levels seen in early 2014 but otherwise are among the weakest for incumbents since 1992.

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“The historically low levels of Americans saying that their own and most members deserve re-election reflect Congress’ dismal job rating, mostly registering at or below 20% in Gallup’s monthly polling for the past five years. If the anti-incumbent mood continues into the fall, Congress could see relatively high turnover, similar to 1992 and 2010 when fewer than 93% of incumbents were re-elected. On the other hand, incumbents did quite well in 2014 — with a 95% re-election rate in the House — in spite of historically low ‘deserves to be re-elected’ numbers. The turnover that did occur was all in the Republicans’ favor.”

“When anti-incumbency fervor coincides with a presidential year, the other possibility is that the losing party in the presidential race takes the brunt of the seat losses, which happened to Republicans in 2008. And while that’s not a guarantee, the heft of the Republicans’ current majority means the GOP has the most to lose from the public’s desire for change in Congress.”

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