Why a Wall Won’t Keep America’s Newest Immigrants Out

Washington Post: “…new research suggests that picture of U.S. immigration may be changing fast. Analysis from Jed Kolko, chief economist at job search site Indeed, shows that recent immigrants are much more likely to be highly educated and to have found jobs in industries involving computers, mathematics and science than the immigrants who came before them. If these immigrants are taking jobs from natives, those jobs are increasingly likely to be highly skilled and highly paid ones.”

“Recent immigrants are also much more likely to come from Asia compared with previous waves. Among immigrants who came to the U.S. in the past five years, one-third were born in Latin America, and 12 percent in Mexico. That’s down from previous years: Looking at the U.S. immigrant population overall, half of those 25 and older were born in Latin America and 27 percent were born in Mexico, Kolko says.”

“The decline in immigrants from Latin America has been offset by a surge from Asia. In the past five years, 45 percent of immigrants to the U.S. were born in Asia, especially India, China and the Philippines. Among the overall U.S. immigrant population, those born in Asia make up only 30 percent.”

Why More Mass Deportations Would Be Bad News for the Housing Market

Emily Badger: “Right around the time foreclosures were starting to pile up in the housing crash, on their way to affecting nearly one in five homeowning Hispanic households, the very same communities took a second blow.”

“The federal government’s Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency, in partnership with local law enforcement, was increasing deportations of undocumented immigrants: more than three million in all between 2005 and 2013. About 85 percent of them were working Latin American men.”

“New research now suggests that the deportations helped exacerbate foreclosures. Counties that collaborated with ICE in what became a large-scale deportation sweep experienced a surge in foreclosures of homes owned by Hispanics, according to a study by Jacob Rugh and Matthew Hall published Thursday in the journal Sociological Science. They argue that the roundups help explain why Hispanics faced the highest foreclosure rates during the housing crash — even among households with legal residents and American citizens.”

More Central Americans Are Giving up on the U.S. And Looking Instead to a Mexican Dream

Los Angeles Times: “The number of migrants seeking to stay in Mexico pales in comparison to the droves heading to the U.S. — more than 400,000 people were apprehended at the U.S. southern border in the fiscal year that ended in September, most of them from Central America.”

“But the burden on Mexico and other countries is likely to increase if President-elect Donald Trump makes good on his promises to beef up border security and deport up to 3 million people living in the U.S. illegally.”

“Asylum applications in Mexico nearly tripled over three years, hitting 3,424 in 2015. Asylum requests this year are poised to be twice that, human rights advocates say, with most filed by Hondurans and Salvadorans.”

“Even with its long-running drug war and a sliding peso, Mexico boasts a degree of safety and economic stability not seen in Honduras and El Salvador, which are among the poorest and most dangerous nations in the world.”

Trump Voters Favor Wall, Divided on Other Immigration Issues

Pew Research Center: “Voters who supported Donald Trump in the presidential election view illegal immigration as a serious problem in the U.S. and strongly favor his proposal to build a wall along the southern border with Mexico. But they are more divided on other questions, including whether to deport some or all of the nation’s estimated 11.1 million unauthorized immigrants.”

The Potentially Severe Consequences of Trump’s Deportation Plans

Washington Post: “In an interview aired Sunday, Donald Trump told “60 Minutes” correspondent Lesley Stahl that he would deport as many as 3 million undocumented immigrants after he takes office next year. It remains to be seen whether the president-elect will fulfill this pledge, and if he does, how quickly he would seek to do so. In any case, two new analyses confirm that deportations could have severe consequences for the American economy.”

“If all undocumented workers were immediately removed from the country, Edwards and Ortega forecast a decline of 9 percent in agricultural production and declines of 8 percent in construction and leisure and hospitality over the long term.”

“Relative to the overall economy, however, the most important effect would be a decline in manufacturing output of $74 billion over the long term, followed by somewhat more modest declines in wholesale and retail trade and financial activities.”

The Worker Shortage Facing America’s Farmers

CNN Money: “American farmers say they are facing a severe worker shortage. More than half of U.S. farm workers are undocumented immigrants, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. Yet, that pool of workers is shrinking.”

“A recent Pew Research report found that more Mexican immigrants are now leaving the U.S. than coming into the country, citing tougher enforcement of immigration laws and the slow economic recovery here in the U.S. (The report accounted for both documented and undocumented immigrants).”

“With fewer workers, farm owners say costs are rising and they often must leave unpicked fruit to rot in the fields. Many producers are even opting to leave the U.S. for countries with lower costs and fewer regulations, said Tom Nassif, CEO of Western Growers, a trade organization that represents farm owners both in the U.S. and abroad.”

Trump’s Visitor Ban Isn’t Just Un-American. It’s Bad for the Economy.

Third Way: “What would Donald Trump’s ban on visitors—both Muslims from around the world and non-Muslims, presumably, from terrorism-affected countries—mean for the U.S. economy?”

“GDP and job losses would then increase significantly each year the ban remains.”

“American Muslims are among the most educated and highest-earning populations.”

“Total Muslim-American disposable income is estimated at $98 billion, with household GDP contributions pegged at an estimated $190 billion. In other words, American Muslims contribute a sum on par with the entire GDP of Vietnam.”

Trump’s Immigration Policies Could Put Americans Out of Work

Washington Post: “A recent analysis by the financial research firm Moody’s explores the possible economic consequences depending on how aggressively Trump enforces his plan.”

“If Trump forced millions of undocumented immigrants to leave the country, according to the analysis, many Americans would be put out of work.”

“In a scenario considered by Moody’s in which 6 million undocumented immigrants depart, prices would be 2.8 percent higher after five years, and after a decade, the reduction in GDP would be about 2.9 percent. Personal income would be about $43,000, according to this projection.”

“Even if only 3.7 million people left the country, the changes in the labor market would still be profound, Moody’s calculated. Prices would be 1.4 percent higher in five years and GDP would be 1.7 percent smaller after a decade.”


Here’s How Little Americans Know About Immigration

Washington Post: “While many Americans consider immigration one of the biggest issues for the future president, surveys suggest that they also have little understanding of the scale of the problem.”

“On average, surveyed Americans guessed that one-third of people in their country were immigrants. The actual figure? Only 14 percent.”

“American estimates for the size of the Muslim population in this country, also a focus of political discussion, are even more extreme. In the IPSOS survey, people on average guessed that 15 percent of the U.S. population is Muslim, compared with an actual figure of 1 percent.”

Cracking Down on Undocumented Immigrants Can Hurt the Economy

The Economist: “The flipside of low wages for illegal immigrants, though, is greater economic benefits for those who are not competing with them for work. A rare study of the effect of illegal immigrants specifically found that in Georgia, a one-percentage-point increase in undocumented workers in firms boosted wages by about 0.1%. One explanation is that such firms benefit from a richer mix of skills within their workforce. Another explanation is that they are sharing the spoils of the savings that stem from hiring workers on the black market.”

“Were a President Trump to deport all illegal immigrants, the economy would suffer greatly. Just ask Arizona, where a crackdown on illegal immigrants in 2007 shrank the economy by 2%, according to a private analysis by Moody’s, a ratings agency, for the Wall Street Journal. The incomes of most workers would fall. Yet strangely enough, those best placed to benefit from a mass deportation would be those who had crossed the border legally.”

5 Facts about Trump Supporters’ Views on Immigration

After Donald Trump’s perceived immigration flip-flop, the Pew Research Center reviewed Trump supporters’ views on immigration. Here are five major takeaways:

“1) Most Trump supporters view immigration as a ‘very big problem’ in the U.S. In a survey released last week, 66% of registered voters who support Trump in the general election call immigration a ‘very big problem’ in the country. Just 17% of Hillary Clinton backers say the same.”

“2) Trump’s proposed border wall gets overwhelming support from his backers… Fully 79% of Trump supporters favor building a wall along the entire U.S.-Mexico border; just 18% are opposed.”

“3) Trump supporters have mixed views of undocumented immigrants. Just 35% of Trump supporters say undocumented immigrants take jobs U.S. citizens would like to have, and a third say that they are less hard-working and honest than citizens. However, a greater share of Trump supporters (50%) think undocumented immigrants in the U.S. ‘are more likely than American citizens to commit serious crimes’; 43% say they are not.”

“4) During the Republican primaries, most Trump supporters did not favor a national effort to deport all those in the U.S. illegally.”

“5) Today, voters who back a Trump presidency are divided on priorities for U.S. immigration policy. Nearly half (48%) of Trump supporters say the priority for policy to deal with illegal immigration should be stronger law enforcement and better border security. Just 10% say the priority should be creating a way for undocumented immigrants to become citizens if they meet certain requirements. But about four-in-ten (41%) say both of these approaches should be given equal priority.”